Local Races Take Shape
Local races take shape
Parties' holds likely to stay
By Will Bigham, Staff Writer
Article Created: 02/24/2008 10:13:36 PM PST
With the March 7 deadline approaching for political candidates to file papers to run for the House of Representatives, state Senate and Assembly, the dynamics of many local races are already taking shape.
Elections will be held this year in 15 local districts, but according to a political analyst, gerrymandered district boundaries make it unlikely that any local district will change party hands.
"If we get to the (presidential) election and it's a real landslide for either Clinton or Obama, then it might shift," said Jack Pitney, government professor at Claremont McKenna College. "... But right now it doesn't look like there's going to be any partisan turnover."
Of the five races in local House districts, the most competitive appears to be in Rep. David Dreier's 26th District, which hugs the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains from Rancho Cucamonga to La Ca ada Flintridge.
The longtime Republican representative is being challenged by Rancho Cucamonga Democrat Russ Warner, who reported about $240,000 cash on hand at the end of December - by far the highest amount a Dreier opponent has raised in many years.
Even so, Warner's financial resources are dwarfed by Dreier's, reported at about $2million cash on hand.
Warner's effort is aided by a shift in voter registration that makes the district less partisan than any other local Congressional district.
Registration figures show that there are 9.5 percent more Republicans
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in the region than Democrats, though that figure has shrunk in recent years from 13 percent in 2004.
Still, Pitney believes Dreier will win in November by a "fairly comfortable margin."
Another local race that could become interesting is the primary contest to determine the Democratic candidate for the 61st Assembly District, which covers Pomona, Ontario, Chino and Montclair.
Democratic incumbent Nell Soto has served in the Assembly since 2006 and before that was a member of the state Senate.
Soto, 81, has had health problems since last year. They have kept her away from Sacramento for several months.
Both Soto and Pomona Mayor Norma Torres - also a Democrat - have filed statements of intent to run for the office, and both have active committees for fundraising.
Soto reported only $8,000 cash on hand at the end of December, and Torres hasn't filed any financial statements.
Torres did not return calls seeking comment last week.
"That (race) remains a question mark," Pitney said. "It may just depend on the state of (Soto's) health. It's not a district that Republicans are likely to take. We'll see what happens in the primary."
In four remaining local House contests, the incumbents appear to be headed to relatively painless victories.
Rep. Grace Napolitano, D-Santa Fe Springs, faces a challenge in the June 3 primary from Democrat Edward Chavez, who has not reported any fundraising. Napolitano reported $275,000 cash on hand. No Republicans have filed to run in the district.
Rep. Gary Miller, R-Brea, does not have any Republican challengers for the primary race. Three Democrats have filed to run for office, but all three have failed to raise enough money to appear competitive.
Miller reported about $835,000 cash on hand at the end of December.
Rep. Joe Baca, D-San Bernardino, faces a Democratic challenger who has not reported any fundraising.
One Republican candidate, John Roberts, has pulled papers to run and reported about $23,000 cash on hand at the end of December.
Baca reported about $85,000 cash on hand, and his district is likely safe because Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 15 percent.
Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Riverside, faces two Democratic challengers. Neither Democrat has raised significant amounts of money, and Calvert reported more than $200,000 cash on hand.
In the Assembly, Anthony Adams, R-Claremont, does not face a challenger so far.
Assemblyman Bob Huff, R-Diamond Bar, has not filed papers to run for re-election in his district, and is seeking office in the state Senate's 29th District.
Seeking to succeed Huff are two Republicans, Larry Dick and Curt Hagman, who each reported more than $300,000 cash on hand at the end of December.
Dick is an elected board member at the Municipal Water District of Orange County. Hagman is the mayor of Chino Hills.
Assemblywoman Wilmer Amina Carter, D-Rialto, faces a Democratic challenger, San Bernardino County Board of Education member Gil Navarro. Navarro has not reported any fundraising.
Assemblyman Bill Emmerson, R-Rancho Cucamonga, reported about $150,000 cash on hand at the end of December. He faces challenges from one Democrat and one Republican, but neither have reported any fundraising activity.
Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, R-Orange, is being termed out. Four Republicans have pulled papers seeking his seat, three of whom appear to be viable candidates.
Neil Blais, mayor of Rancho Santa Margarita, reported about $232,000 cash on hand at the end of December.
Jeffrey Miller, mayor of Corona, reported about $226,000 cash on hand.
Irvine Councilman Steven Choi reported about $77,000 cash on hand.
In the state Senate, Bob Margett, R-Glendora, is being termed out. Republican Assemblyman Huff appears to be the most serious challenger for the seat, with about $390,000 cash on hand.
Former Assemblyman Dennis Mountjoy, a Republican, is also seeking the seat, though he reported only $16,000 cash on hand at the end of December.
State Sen. Bob Dutton, R-Rancho Cucamonga, is running for re-election unopposed.
